Examining the November 3 election results: an opinion

Submitted by Suanne Z. Thamm

Reporter - News Analyst

As we recover from the 2015 Fernandina Beach General Election and gear up for the December 8 runoff it is interesting to look at some of the statistics and results from the city’s latest exercise in democracy.

The Fernandina Observer congratulates the candidates winning or heading to the runoff elections: Len Kreger, commissioner-elect, Group 5; and Group 4 run-off contestants Pat Gass and Roy Smith. Credit is also due to those unsuccessful candidates who cared enough about the future of the city to throw their hats into the ring: Jim B. Higginbotham and Jennifer Schriver, Group 4; and Clinch Kavanaugh, Group 5.

Strategically, the decision with the most significant long-term impact for the city was the voters’ approval of Question 1 to increase the term of city commissioners from three to four years, thus bringing their terms into line with those of Nassau County Commissioners and School Board Members. The mayor’s term has also changed from one to two years.

Although the phase-in of the new terms will not be completed until the 2020 election, the elimination of the off-year elections could ultimately lead to greater political stability in the city and larger voter turnout during even-numbered years that hold contests for county, state and federal positions. The city will also save a relatively small amount of money--$13,000—for each eliminated off year election and achieve savings in staff time in the Clerk’s Office.

Voter turnout

According to Vicki Cannon, Nassau County Supervisor of Elections, on November 3 there were 9,809 registered voters in the city of Fernandina Beach, but only 1,983 ballots cast. Of those, ballots, 589 were cast by mail and 1,393 on Election Day. This means that roughly only one out of every five registered voters exercised their right to vote. So even though there are close to ten thousand registered voters in the city, one thousand votes seem to be sufficient to win an election.

Why the low turnout? Part of the reason can be attributed to the off-year election cycle. City elections attract more voters when they are coupled with state, county and federal elections in even-numbered years.

City voters may have solved that part of the problem by overwhelmingly approving (55%) a ballot measure that will, by 2020, eliminate off year elections with the conversion of commissioner terms to 4 years and the mayoral straw poll vote for a 2-year term, as opposed to the current single year. The first election for a commissioner to serve a 4-year term will occur in November 2016, when the seat currently held by Johnny Miller will be contested. Off-year elections will continue to be held in 2017 and 2019 until all five commission seats can convert to the new four-year term.

The other problem—unfortunately, more difficult to address—is voter apathy. There are myriad reasons for voters not casting ballots ranging from lack of knowledge about the candidates to forgetfulness. Some voters claim that it doesn’t make any difference who wins; others don’t seem to feel vested in this community. This is a serious matter for our community as it faces the challenges of growth, environmental concerns and how to pay for needed or desired civic improvements. As a community Fernandina Beach citizens must find better ways to engage the electorate at large to field candidates who are up to the task of dealing with these challenges and who have the stamina to run and serve as city commissioners.

Runoff election December 8

There will be a runoff election on December 8, 2015 for voters to decide between incumbent commissioner Pat Gass, who garnered 38.05% of the votes cast in the general election and challenger Roy Smith, who came in second with 23.6% of the votes cast. In looking at the results by precinct, Gass handily outpolled her three opponents in all three precincts, while Smith came in second in Precincts 1 and 2, and third in Precinct 3. In that precinct, one vote separated Smith from candidate Jennifer Schriver who placed second.

Historically, voter turnout for runoff elections is lower than for general elections. Because the runoff occurs during the holiday season, voters who might otherwise be traveling or busy with shopping and entertaining should consider requesting a mail ballot from the Supervisor of Elections. This may be done electronically via www.votenassau.com or by calling the Supervisor’s office at (904) 491-7500.

To learn more about these two candidates for the Fernandina Beach Group 4 Commission seat, search the Fernandina Observer website for their press releases and answers to questions posed to them. You may also contact them directly to learn more about their positions or assist in their campaigns.

Pat Gass may be reached at her email patkgass@yahoo.com or (904) 277-7987.

Roy Smith may be reached at his email roys4fernandina@aol.com or (904) 432-8601.

Signs, money and election results

There is always a controversy over election signs, with many people hating them and many others saying they are important for understanding where candidates’ support lies. This year it appears that the candidate who got out the most signs earliest in the election cycle was Clinch Kavanaugh. His striking white-on-red signs were reminiscent of the “JEB!” signs used during Jeb Bush’s successful campaigns for Florida governor.

But Kavanaugh lost the Group 5 Fernandina Beach City Commission contest to Len Kreger (45.96% to 54.04%). Kreger had only 50 signs printed in black-and-white. Many people claimed that they never saw a Kreger sign at all.

In the Group 4 race, Gass’ signs came out later than others, again in red-and-white colors. She seemed to win the sign race over Smith, who also opted for black-and-white like Kreger, Schriver who went with red-and-white, and Higginbotham who chose oversized signs in electric orange with lots of black lettering explaining his platform.

It would appear that signs are not as important as message, or the lack thereof, in today’s city elections.

Signs and mailings are major expenses to campaigns. In perusing campaign expense reports (available on the Supervisor of Elections website), it appears that Kavanaugh was the only one to produce a mailing (cost: $2,570.85). Other candidate expenses included advertising, producing palm cards and business cards and supplies. Loans to their campaigns were common among the candidates, meaning that virtually all the campaigns (except Kavanaugh’s) were mostly self-financed.

The chart below shows the relationship between money spent and results. Clinch Kavanaugh, the candidate who to date has reported by far the highest contributions and expenses, lost decisively in the Group 5 general election to Len Kreger, an opponent who spent less than 15 percent as much on his campaign. The picture seems less clear in the Group 4 race, where Gass, with the advantage of incumbency, was able to greatly reduce expenses to achieve recognition among the voters.

City of Fernandina Beach General Election - November 3, 2015

The new commissioners will not be seated until the December 15, 2015 Reorganizational Meeting of the Fernandina Beach City Commission (FBCC). During that meeting, the commission will formally elect its new mayor, traditionally the winner of the general election straw poll. At that meeting the mayor also makes committee assignments for the next year, and commissioners reaffirm their support for Charter Officers: City Manager, City Attorney and City Clerk.

In the meantime, please plan to vote in the December 8, 2015 runoff election.