Climate Change is real and people are the main cause, State Climatologist tells Dems

By Anne H. Oman

Reporter-At-Large

April 25, 2019 1:00 a.m.

Florida State Climatologist David F. Zierden

Florida State Climatologist David F. Zierden opened his talk to the Democratic Club of Amelia Island Tuesday night by denying that he had a political agenda.

“I’m not going to tell you my political affiliation,” he said. “Climate doesn’t follow any political bounds.”

Instead, Mr. Zierden, who grew up on the Panhandle and holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in meteorology from Florida State University, took a “just the facts” approach. Here are some of the facts he stated:

• Since pre-industrial times, average global temperatures have increased steadily about 1 degree Celsius.*
• The last five years have been the warmest on record, and 2018 was the fourth warmest year on record, and the second wettest.
• Extreme rainfalls are becoming more frequent.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have seen a steady exponential rise since 1954. The United States leads the world in per capita CO2 emissions.
• Sea levels are rising at a rate of 2 millimeters per year, but that rate may be accelerating to 3 millimeters per year by 2100—amounting to 1 to 4 feet by the end of the century.

Here in Florida:

• 46 of the last 49 months have been warmer than average, with night time temperatures most affected.
• In North Florida, summer temperatures have risen 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the last twenty years. Winter temperatures were less affected.
• A tide gauge on Amelia Island shows a steady rise in sea levels of 2 millimeters per year.

“Climate change is broader than global warming,” said Mr. Zierden. It can also bring about drought and severe freezes. And the practical effects of climate change are many. On agriculture, for example.

Citrus growing used to be centered around the St. John’s River, according to Mr. Zierden. But extreme freezes have pushed it south. On health. An audience member pointed out that warmer, more humid weather brings an increase in mosquito-borne diseases. And, top of everyone’s mind, on hurricanes.

“Warmer sea surfaces and higher humidity won’t necessarily increase the number and severity of hurricanes,” said the climatologist. “But it will change them. Coastal flooding from storm surge will be worse due to sea level rise.”

So, what should we do about climate change?

The Paris Agreement – which the United States pulled back from – set a tangible goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

“There was discussion of setting the goal even lower,” said Mr. Zierden. “But if we set goals unrealistically low, there’s a danger of developing a ‘cliff mentality’.” (i.e., if we don’t meet the ideal, we’re doomed.)

“The US needs to be a leader,” the climatologist said. “China – which leads the world in total CO2 emissions -- is doing much more than we are.”

Although the US pulled out of the Paris Agreement, “industry is getting on board” to address climate change, as are several states, “despite the lack on leadership on the national level,” according to Mr. Zierden.

Florida, alas, is not among these states insofar as there is no statewide plan on climate change. But Mr. Zierden pointed to several regional efforts in Florida, including the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact, the Tampa Bay Regional Resiliency Coalition, and the Northeast Florida Regional Council.

Another positive development: due to the availability of relatively inexpensive natural gas, converting from coal to natural gas is reducing our CO2 emissions.

Despite his earlier disavowal of politics, Mr. Zierden said that “there needs to be a change in our political thinking…. Science is not a belief system. In the upcoming 2020 presidential debates, don’t ask candidates whether they believe in climate change – ask ‘what is your plan to address it?’”

What can we laypeople do to address climate change?

“Numbers 1, 2, and 3 are vote, vote, vote,” he answered.

Mr. Zierden, an avid fisherman and surfer, is an Associate in Research at Florida State University’s Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies. He was named State Climatologist in 2006, and part of his role is to inform and educate Floridians about climate issues.

Asked by the Fernandina Observer whether the administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was on board with climate change, Mr. Zierden replied that “he’s certainly on board with the environment.” He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” that the administration would address climate change.

According to Floridapolitics.com, Gov. DeSantis “came out swinging for the environment” creating an Office of Environmental Accountability and Transparency and calling for $2.5 billion over the next four years for Everglades restoration and protection of water resources. To date, however, he has declined to discuss climate change and the causes thereof.

*A statement was made in error that "Average global temperatures have been increasing steadily at 1 degrees Celsius each year."  We have corrected the error to read "Since pre-industrial times, average global temperatures have increased steadily about 1 degree Celsius."

Editor's Note: Anne H. Oman relocated to Fernandina Beach from Washington, D.C. Her articles have appeared in The Washington Post, The Washington Star, The Washington Times, Family Circle and other publications.